A Scary Future ?

                               

             Hello dear friends I hope you  all will be fine and doing good. Our progress in 75 years ranks poorly even regionally. How will it be in our next 25 years, run-up to 100 years of freedom ?. Future studies review current trends to predict the future. Sical scientists often fail to even review  the past well. Their forays into the future are even more iffy. But by giving multiple scenarios and not one outcome, future studies give useful insight. I review six key trends.

       Demographic

              Our numbers may hit 340 million by 2050 against more than 210m now. Some say demographics cause all the crises but they are actually caused by elite politicis tht expolits the poor, leading  to big families. We've quardrupled since 1971. Absolutely poverty though fell to on-fourth from near  50percent to 10-15pc despite slow growth and misrule. Apt policies make demographics a dividend, bad ones a misery. Already, we have the second most illiterate kids globally.

        Ecological

        By 2050, climate change will destroy fertile soil, cause water wards and increse disasters. As one of its key victims we may face more mega emergencies, epidemics, migration and conflict as more people chase fewer goods.

        Economic

        We suffer from long-run slow GDP and job growth, high twin deficits, huge debt and low innovation and competitveness. Our brief growth eras came via ties with big powers that gave more plain than gain. Ties with the US seem cut beyond repair. China is now our big freebies hope. The US at least aided many states to grow even if it hurt oters but China has harmed many states. Our free trade and CPEC pacts upped our external deficit. Ties with China incur US. CPEC and Central Asia links via China look like hype. It is also stricter than US with freebies. As these  shrink, we still lack Bangaladesh's art of  growing steadily without them. A global move away from oil may cut Saudi inflows. So the economy shows few goods trends and may fail to tackel the threats mentioned.

        Social

        Religiosity and patriotism as well as extremism goad  hordes to sacrifice key national  interest. The TLP reflect this trend. It could cause huge harm, more then the TTP, as it expands its faith agenda, street power and electoral clout in key Punjab and Karachi areas. A state cannot be both an economic and extremism hub.

        External

        Extremist trends resemble those seen in other religions and belief system in region- all oppose yet feed each other making this area the most unstable in terms of extremism. India- Pakistan enmity is the main global nuclear risk in future.

        Political

        Politics is society's avenue to adopt apt  policies against  threats. But for  us, it oises threats itself, political legitimacy via free pools gives political stablility, then good policies and finally progress. We are yet to attain even the first step. Out establishment is accused of rigging 13 of 15 national polls  by unleashing extremism while leashing liberal and even centrist parties. The 2008-2018 era had political legitimacy which is why it was out best era  despite much misrule. But it was nixed and a hybrid regime imposed whose outcomes are worse.

            The best governance our society can produce naturally in the near term is the weak elitist one offered by parties like the PPP and PML (N) with liberal foces, being too small to rule pushing them to make good policies. Even this best level governance will struggle to tackle the threats we face. However, attemps to replace and improve it artifically will only result in worse misrule, like today's hybrid or even extremist politics. Ethnic grips abound too from Punjab's growing sway. All five elected prime ministers and three army chiefs since 2008 belong to the province.

            So review of six key realms shows positive trends in not even one, mainly due to autocracy. Hardly any other state facts this grim mix of demographic and 11 Es- ecological external, enmity, economics, extremism, emergencies, education, epidemics, estalblishment, ethnic and elitism issues. These may case huge future  crises that eclipse our many past ones. The wrost scenarios are all under autocracy; nuclear  calamity, Libya type fate, or more likely a Myanmar one. Political legitimacy promies the best one. We may catch up with Bangladesh and India, but partially as even our best governance level will be so-so and threats will remain high. An Asian Tiger future, the wild hope of our wooly middle class, is a mirage, But so it is for our neighbours if that calms hurt national egos. By 2050, being much worse is possible, but not being much better.

        Progress lies in political legitimacy, the first step. The worse is establishment asit blocks this. Society and exterbnal powers must push it one this, for a nuclear national of over 200m hit by may huge threats may create a global calamity.